COE / PQP FORECAST FOR OCT 2024 NOV2024 DEC 2024/ RESULTS FOR PQP AUG 2024/PQP SEP 2024
My forecast for Sep 2024 PQP was:
CAT A = $90,598
CAT B = $100,968
PQP Result for Sep 2024:
CAT A = $91,697 (approximately 1k higher)
CAT B = $102,639 (approximately 2k higher)
Reviewing the September PQP Forecast: A Look Back and What to Expect in October
As we roll into October, it's time to take a moment to reflect on the accuracy of our September PQP forecast. We projected the September PQP with a confidence range of within 2%, and we're pleased to say we were right on target. This level of precision demonstrates the robust data analysis and understanding of COE trends we’ve developed at Gingerbread Autos. Now, let’s turn our attention to October, where we expect the PQP to follow a similar pattern.
Why the October Forecast Looks Familiar
Historically, fluctuations in the PQP follow fairly predictable patterns based on supply and demand dynamics. Our September forecast was rooted in these trends, and October is shaping up to follow suit. Given the current COE quota adjustments and buyer sentiment, we anticipate that the October PQP will hover around the same range as September, with minor variances due to typical market behavior.
COE Trends: The Seasonal Dips and Rises
For those curious about the broader patterns, a review of yearly COE trends reveals some interesting insights. Historically, the months of May and June tend to see slight dips in the COE prices due to mid-year quota releases. September and October typically remain stable, as we’ve witnessed, while we often observe an upward trend in November and December, driven by end-of-year demand.
While each year brings its own unique market forces, being aware of these cyclical tendencies can help consumers make more informed decisions on vehicle purchases. The key takeaway? October will likely maintain the steady course we’ve seen in September, giving prospective buyers a consistent outlook.
What’s Next?
My long term call published 6 months ago in March still stands. We will see lower COEs as we get into the new year. While prices never go down in a straight line, my crystal ball is clear!
My forecast for Oct 2024 PQP is:
CAT A = $91,598
CAT B = $102,668
Let’s GO!